Here’s how a Zillow economist invests in real estate

Zillow’s chief economist Mischa Fisher predicts the housing market for a living. On weekends, he bets on it—with his own rentals, renovations, and raw land. He reveals what owning real estate has taught him that spreadsheets never could, and why he never fully believes housing forecasts (even his own).

Q: Tell me about your first investment property. “Around 10 years ago, I bought a townhouse in Denver in the mid-to-high $400k range that we could live in then rent out for around $3,000 once we moved. Rates were falling while the neighborhood was improving; I figured those two things would make it a good long-term performer. Despite the headwinds on rent growth across Denver, I’ve been able to hold rents steady.”

Q: How did your economist background impact this purchase? “I think about opportunity costs, the cost of my time. A lot of investors chase ‘passive income,’ but I believe there’s no free lunch. If you own a rental, you’re going to have to manage it sometimes. This is why all my investments are in Colorado within driving distance.”

Q: What other properties have you bought? “A single-family house in the mid-$600ks, well-loved but dated. That was a great opportunity to freshen it up, finish the basement, and boost the bedroom count from three to five. Zillow data shows that people are flexible on bathrooms and square footage, but bedroom count is sticky. Based on ROI, if you drop $100,000 on a kitchen remodel, you won’t see much return. A fresh coat of paint, a new garage or front door—those tend to pay high dividends because they’re relatively cheap for the visual impact.”

Q: How handy are you with renovations? “I grew up on a farm so I was constantly building and had some construction jobs in high school. I’ve got a pretty solid power tool collection! I made our dining room table, kitchen chairs, bookshelves, and my desk. If you can find a way to work DIY into your investments, you’ll be more successful.”

Q: What else is in your portfolio? “A land investment of 30 acres purchased at a low five figures per acre where we plan to build a community of rentals in the low double digits. It’s capital-intensive, but I lean toward ‘bring your own demand’ rather than riding the market. Investors who bought properties to flip and then got stuck holding them when rates went up—that’s what I wanted to avoid.”

Q: How has the current state of housing impacted your investment decisions? “We’ve had about four years of a relatively flat housing market and projections for growth that haven’t panned out. That volatility means more risk. So I wanted to do something less reliant on my being right, because nobody has a crystal ball, including the world’s best economists. As a housing forecaster, I’ve had some great years and some years where I missed. In a period of heightened volatility, I wanted to adjust my risk tolerance and have something more predictable. I’ve put a big penalty on uncertainty. To paraphrase Yogi Berra, forecasting is hard, especially about the future.”

Q: What lessons have you learned as an economist and investor? “It’s important for economists not to just stare at numbers or push out research disconnected from the human activity underneath. My advice for investors is to really think through your risk tolerance. You don’t want to hear ‘so-and-so did this four years ago.’ We’re in a different environment now. Focus on the parts you like, because if you don’t like it, my earlier point about there being no such thing as truly passive income is even more true: It’s not just work; it’s work you either enjoy or don’t.”